Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 0.003737 0.004087 0.004462 0.004893 0.005378 0.005908 0.006532
2025-11-23 0.003087 0.003565 0.004113 0.004792 0.005617 0.006594 0.007851
2025-11-30 0.002775 0.003325 0.003984 0.004843 0.005947 0.007335 0.009244
2025-12-07 0.002596 0.003203 0.003961 0.004991 0.006377 0.008214 0.010895
2025-12-14 0.002373 0.002996 0.003798 0.004925 0.006501 0.008681 0.012025
2025-12-21 0.002176 0.002802 0.003627 0.004820 0.006546 0.009026 0.013003
2025-12-28 0.002028 0.002658 0.003507 0.004769 0.006651 0.009454 0.014147
2026-01-04 0.001927 0.002568 0.003453 0.004801 0.006874 0.010072 0.015664
2026-01-11 0.001810 0.002447 0.003343 0.004737 0.006938 0.010443 0.016813
2026-01-18 0.001713 0.002347 0.003253 0.004695 0.007029 0.010858 0.018087
2026-01-25 0.001621 0.002248 0.003159 0.004635 0.007082 0.011209 0.019287
2026-02-01 0.001556 0.002185 0.003113 0.004647 0.007250 0.011773 0.020969
2026-02-08 0.001476 0.002097 0.003028 0.004597 0.007323 0.012200 0.022505
2026-02-15 0.001391 0.001998 0.002921 0.004503 0.007314 0.012482 0.023807
2026-02-22 0.001345 0.001955 0.002900 0.004550 0.007559 0.013270 0.026342
2026-03-01 0.001322 0.001946 0.002929 0.004687 0.007979 0.014454 0.030016
2026-03-08 0.001260 0.001873 0.002851 0.004626 0.008019 0.014869 0.031947
2026-03-15 0.001197 0.001794 0.002757 0.004529 0.007979 0.015110 0.033495
2026-03-22 0.001148 0.001735 0.002692 0.004482 0.008032 0.015557 0.035670
2026-03-29 0.001115 0.001701 0.002671 0.004511 0.008243 0.016379 0.039052
2026-04-05 0.001070 0.001645 0.002605 0.004452 0.008263 0.016768 0.041300
2026-04-12 0.001031 0.001597 0.002552 0.004413 0.008322 0.017255 0.043960
2026-04-19 0.000992 0.001547 0.002492 0.004358 0.008339 0.017644 0.046415